Kwara 2027: How AbdulRazaq–Saraki Power Struggle Casts Shadow Over Kale Kawu’s Guber Bid

As political permutations ahead of the 2027 governorship election intensify in Kwara State, the ambition of Engr. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu Agaka, popularly known as Kale Kawu, appears increasingly entangled in the protracted rivalry between Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq and former Senate President Bukola Saraki.

Kawu, the Daniyan of Ilorin, is widely regarded as a formidable aspirant, combining royal pedigree, technocratic credentials and an extensive record of philanthropy. A retired director in the federal civil service and an accomplished electrical engineer, he has earned recognition for his contributions to rural electrification, education, healthcare and economic empowerment across communities in the state.

Political observers say his growing appeal has positioned him as a potential consensus candidate. However, the deep political polarisation that has defined Kwara since the 2019 “O To Ge” movement now threatens to complicate his pathway to the Government House.

Supporters describe Kawu as a bridge-builder with grassroots acceptance and traditional legitimacy, but acknowledge that his long-standing association with the Saraki political structure could prove both an advantage and a liability.

“We admire him because of his development efforts and genuine concern for the people,” said Alaja Kubura Baboko, a women leader in Ilorin Emirate. “That is why many of us see him as a leader with capacity not just for Kwara, but for national service.”

Despite this goodwill, sources close to Kawu’s camp say uncertainty persists over which political platform can best carry his ambition in a state still sharply divided between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

While Saraki’s influence remains significant in Kwara Central, the frosty relationship between him and Governor Abdulrazaq has created a tense political environment that requires careful navigation. Analysts warn that open alignment with either camp could alienate a critical segment of Kawu’s support base.

Insiders revealed that some voters and stakeholders in Kwara Central are urging Kawu to consider the APC, citing Governor Abdulrazaq’s firm control of the party structure and what they describe as the PDP’s weakened position since its defeat in 2019.

“There is a feeling that he needs a platform that is stable and not struggling internally,” said Umar Bolaji, a legal practitioner and APC member. “The Daniyan enjoys uncommon acceptance. At his retirement ceremony, political leaders, clerics and top Islamic scholars from Ilorin and beyond openly prayed for his political future.”

Beyond the dominant APC–PDP divide, a third option is also gaining traction. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is reportedly attracting disgruntled PDP members and Saraki loyalists who are uncomfortable with the party’s current direction but unwilling to fully align with the Abdulrazaq-led APC.

VERITY NEWS gathered that some strategists within Kawu’s camp are studying the ADC as a possible alternative platform, reflecting a broader national conversation around the party as a potential third force. Prominent opposition figures, including Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, have been linked to ongoing discussions around the ADC.

A senior national official of the ADC, who is also contesting an elective position, confirmed that the party remains open to new entrants, insisting that internal processes would be transparent and competitive.

“Our doors are open, but there are clear rules for participation,” the official said, declining to be named.

Supporters of Kawu fear that missteps at this stage could prove costly. Aligning too closely with Saraki could provoke resistance from the governor’s camp, while a shift toward the APC could be interpreted as political betrayal by Saraki loyalists.

“Kale Kawu is operating in a very delicate space,” said veteran political analyst Gidado Gobiri. “Both camps are playing hard politics, and he is right at the centre of the chessboard. One wrong calculation could end his ambition before the primaries begin.”

As consultations continue behind the scenes, political watchers say the coming months will reveal whether the Daniyan of Ilorin can separate his personal appeal from the entrenched rivalry of Kwara’s two dominant political figures.

Attempts to reach Engr. Kawu for comments were unsuccessful as his phone was switched off. His media consultant, Mr Wahab Oba, declined to speak on the matter, explaining that Kawu was in Ilorin observing the mourning rites of the late Chief Imam, Bashir Salihu, who recently passed away after a brief illness.