By Hadiza Isyaku Abdulsalam
In Nigerian politics, loyalty is rarely permanent, power is often negotiated, and survival usually trumps sentiment. Nowhere is this reality more visible than in Kano State, where the political universe built around Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) is undergoing a quiet but consequential recalibration.
A little over two years after the historic 2023 general elections that upended Kano’s political order, the Kwankwasiyya movement—once feared for its discipline, numbers and street-level loyalty—is grappling with attrition rather than expansion. The movement that stunned both the APC and PDP with a sweeping victory is today confronted with a more sobering test: how to survive success.
At the heart of this unfolding drama are reports that Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf may be weighing a defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC), a move said to enjoy the tacit approval—or strategic restraint—of Kwankwaso himself. Whether framed as endorsement or pragmatism, insiders see it as evidence of a political godfather managing damage, not dictating terms.
From Peak to Pressure Point
For years, Kwankwaso’s political brand thrived on loyalty, internal discipline and a tightly controlled structure. The 2023 elections appeared to validate that model. Riding on the red cap symbolism of Kwankwasiyya, the NNPP clinched both the governorship and Kano’s presidential votes, dismantling entrenched power blocs in the process.
But victory came with costs. Governing exposed internal contradictions, competing ambitions and unresolved grievances. As months passed, some of the very figures who delivered the 2023 triumph began to drift away—quietly at first, then openly. Today, Kwankwaso remains a towering figure, but one with shrinking room to manoeuvre.
The Men Who Delivered—and Departed
The NNPP’s success in 2023 was not accidental. It was engineered by experienced politicians with the grassroots machinery, legislative reach, and deep local structures. Many of those pillars are no longer within the fold.
Abdulmumin Jibril (Kofa)
The House of Representatives member for Kiru/Bebeji was one of the most visible faces of the 2023 campaign. His strength lay in youth mobilisation, media engagement and populist messaging. His exit weakened the NNPP’s connection to younger and urban voters, creating a vacuum the party is yet to fill.
Dr. Abdullahi Baffa Bichi
A former Secretary to the Kano State Government, Bichi brought bureaucratic experience and elite coordination to the NNPP. He was central to stabilising the transition from campaign to governance. His departure meant more than numbers—it drained the party of institutional memory.
Sulaiman Kawu Sumaila
Elected Senator for Kano South, Sumaila played a decisive role in consolidating votes across several federal constituencies. His defection to the APC not only weakened the NNPP’s legislative presence but also reinforced perceptions of a party struggling to retain its elected officials.
Kabiru Alhassan Rurum
Former Speaker of the Kano State House of Assembly and now a federal lawmaker representing Rano/Bunkure/Kibiya, Rurum commanded fierce loyalty at the ward level. His grassroots machinery was critical to the 2023 victory. His exit signalled a serious erosion of the NNPP’s local enforcement structure.
The Expanding List of Former Loyalists
Beyond the headline names, a growing list of former Kwankwasiyya loyalists have either defected or publicly distanced themselves from Kwankwaso’s leadership.
The APC’s Quiet Harvest
On the other side of the political divide, the APC has moved with calculated precision, absorbing not just politicians but entire political machines. What the ruling party is gaining goes beyond defectors; it is inheriting experience, ward-level control and deep knowledge of Kano’s electoral terrain.
What Lies Ahead
Kwankwaso will remain a political heavyweight in Nigeria. Yet, influence without structure is a fragile asset. The ongoing defections raise uncomfortable questions about internal justice, party discipline and strategic foresight within the NNPP. As Kano’s political map shifts once again, one reality stands out: the 2023 elections may have been the high point of the Kwankwasiyya movement. What comes next will determine whether it evolves into a durable political institution, consolidates around fewer loyalists, or gradually dissolves into Nigeria’s long list of short-lived political insurgencies.
In politics, victories fade quickly. Only structures endure.