The United States has acknowledged a significant decline in its capacity to monitor terrorist activities in West Africa following the withdrawal of its forces from Niger Republic—an exit that has coincided with a surge in extremist violence across the region, including in Nigeria.
This concern was raised during a “Digital Press Briefing on the African Chiefs of Defense Conference 2025,” where Commander of U.S. Africa Command, U.S. Marine Corps General Michael Langley, addressed growing instability linked to extremist groups.
“I’ll just say that since we’ve left Niger in September of last year, we’re observing a rise in attacks by violent extremist organisations, not only in Niger but across the Sahel to include Nigeria as well and emanating in – going into Burkina Faso and Mali,” Langley stated.
He further explained that this uptick in violence is not only evident in the number of attacks but also in their complexity, driven by socioeconomic grievances and the rampant spread of arms.
“Now, this increase is measurable by both frequency and complexity of these attacks, driven by persistent and socioeconomic grievances and the proliferation of weapons and increased capable terrorist groups across the board,” he said.
Crucially, Langley admitted the strategic drawback of the U.S. exit from Niger, saying, “So unfortunately with our withdrawal from the region, we have lost our ability to monitor these terrorist groups closely but continue to liaison with partners to provide what support we can.”
In September 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense and the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Niger jointly announced that the withdrawal of U.S. personnel and assets from Niger had been completed.
“This process began on May 19 following the mutual establishment of withdrawal conditions and continued with the withdrawal of U.S. forces and assets from Air Base 101 in Niamey on July 7, 2024, and Air Base 201 in Agadez on Aug. 5, 2024,” a statement published on the U.S. Africa Command website disclosed.
It was also noted that “the U.S. Africa Command Coordination Element, consisting of a two-star General Officer and staff, has departed from Niger.”
Meanwhile, a report by SBM Intelligence has raised concerns about the growing power of non-state actors in Nigeria, particularly due to their access to firearms. The report noted that these groups now outgun Nigeria’s security forces, making it harder to control internal security threats.
“A 2020 report by SBM Intelligence for the Open Society Initiative for West Africa (OSIWA) estimates that civilian non-state actors possess approximately 6,145,000 small arms nationwide, while the combined arsenal of the armed forces and law enforcement agencies stands at about 586,600 firearms,” the report said.
“This imbalance has undermined the state’s monopoly on the use of force, enabling various armed groups to operate with impunity,” it added.
It also highlighted the evolution of Nigeria’s farmer-herder crisis into a broader network of organised crime:
“The inability of security forces to effectively mediate conflicts or hold perpetrators accountable has emboldened not only armed Fulani groups but also criminal elements who exploit the situation for personal gain,” the report said.
“What began as a resource-driven conflict has evolved into an organised crime network, with armed groups engaging in cattle rustling, kidnappings, and targeted attacks for ransom or territorial control.”
The widespread availability of small arms is also blamed for Nigeria’s deepening humanitarian crisis.
“The widespread availability of small arms has intensified the violence, leading to mass displacement and a humanitarian crisis,” it said.
The SBM-OSIWA report ultimately places Nigeria among the most terrorism-impacted countries in the world, alongside Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.
“Population growth has intensified the crisis, as human and livestock numbers have surged, placing immense pressure on already scarce land,” it concluded.