“It’s the election year”, declares TIME magazine. And it is verily so. Consider: In 2024, the world will see the conduct of at least seventy five major elections!
Never in our annals have so many elections been conducted around the world. Never have so many people been involved. And hardly can anyone divine the consequences or purport of this electionfest.
Not less than four(4) billion people are expected to vote in these elections. They are notably going to be conducted in the United States of America(USA), the United Kingdom(U.K), Russia, the European Union(EU), Indonesia, Taiwan, Ukraine, Pakistan, India, Mexico, South Africa, Algeria, Ghana, Mali, Senegal, Chad, Mozambique, Madagascar, Togo and Belgium.
These elections have consequences for the entire world. They are expected to shape and determine global politics, economy, climate change, Artificial Intelligence(AI) and international relations. They are crucially important. It is a measure of their importance that though the theme of this year’s World Economic Forum(WEF) at Davos, Switzerland, is “Building Trust”, the WEF’s Managing Director, Saadia Zahadi, told the BBC that the elections will dominate discussions at the Forum, which begins on Monday, January 15th, 2024.
One of the elections that will be thoroughly scrutinized is the American Presidential one of November. The election promises a re-match between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. It is being speculated that a victory by Trump will throw the world into a tailspin, if not, a tempest. The Associated Press(AP) fears that a Trump victory “is perhaps the greatest global wild card”.
Another election being watched, with trepidation, is that of the self-governing island of Taiwan. Under intense pressure from China, which sees it as an extension of its country, it is thought that the outcome of the presidential election scheduled for this year is significant to the Asia-Pacific region and the United States.
Even though the prospects of these elections excite pundits, the Media, Civil Society and Election Management Bodies(EMBs), not all will birth or result in free, fair and credible elections. The Bangladesh election of January 7th this year kickstarted the surfeit of elections to be held in 2024. Nonetheless, the election, in which the incumbent, Sheikh Hasina, secured a fourth term, was marred by violence. It was also boycotted by the opposition. Before the conduct of the election, some two weeks ago, dissent was suppressed and the media were tramelled.
It is thought that in Russia, genuine opponents will not be allowed to contest and that Vladimir Putin will only pretend to go through the motions of an election. Argues Ian Bond of the Center for European Reform:”He has control of all the administrative machinery required to make sure that a crushing vote in favor of him is delivered and we get another six years of Putin up to at least 2030”.
In Pakistan, a travesty is in the offing: That country’s most popular politician and a former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, remains incarcerated under trump up charges. His supporters are being constantly harassed and hounded.
In India, members of the eighteenth LOK SABHA or parliament will be elected. They will in turn select the Prime Minister. The odds favor Prime Minister Narenda Modi and his governing Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP). The Indian economy is a howling success. It is growing at 7% and it has pulled millions of Indians out of poverty. Mr. Modi is, however, alleged to have jailed and intimidated political opponents.
Ukraine, besieged by Russia and currently under martial law, may not hold elections after all. Its President, Volodomyr Zelensky, is not doing well, according to opinion polls. Recently, his country has come under a barrage of Russian missile attacks. The question is: what becomes of Ukraine in the aftermath of a certain Putin re-election?
In the West Africa sub-region, which has morphed into a coup belt, stakeholders will watch keenly to see how the elections will turn out in Chad, Mali, Senegal, Togo and Ghana. Ghana’s elections, and the several reforms and innovations it has introduced, are thought to have inspired other countries, particularly Nigeria. Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) is thought to have taken such innovations as the Permanent Voter Card(PVC) and the Smart Card Reader(SCR) out of the playbook of the Electoral Commission(EC) of Ghana. Both innovations proved to be game changers in the 2015 General Elections.
Unfortunately, like Nigeria, Ghana has regressed. It has taken a turn for the worst. In a lecture on Constitution Day, former Chairperson of the Ghana Electoral Commission(EC), Dr. Kwado Afari-Gyan, on whose watch several progressive innovations were introduced, decried the ugly phenomena of vote-buying and vote-selling in his country. Said he:”But it is a shameful spectacle because vote-buying and vote-selling are unlawful and they undermine two important principles that underpin our democracy. Vote-buying undermines the idea that we chose our leaders out of free will and vote-selling undermines the idea that we always hold our elected leaders accountable through elections”.
It is instructive that vote-buying and vote-selling afflict and frame Nigerian elections.
If these elections, to be conducted this year, make 2024 the ultimate year for the conduct of dozens of elections, they also hold the potential of teaching us useful lessons. It is up to us to learn these lessons, and to diligently factor them in planning and implementing future elections. That is how we can refine and consolidate our democracy.