By Ozumi Abdul
The emerging possibility of a 2027 senatorial contest between former Kogi State Governor Yahaya Adoza Bello and the incumbent Senator representing Kogi Central Senatorial District, Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, represents far more than a routine electoral contest. It is shaping up as a defining political battle that juxtaposes entrenched power against popular legitimacy, political machinery against grassroots affection, and traditional dominance against insurgent, people-driven politics. In many respects, it is a continuation of an unresolved political rivalry whose roots lie firmly in the dramatic events of the 2023 general elections.
To properly evaluate the likelihood and implications of such a contest, it is essential to revisit the circumstances under which Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan emerged victorious in 2023, particularly given that virtually all institutional and political forces were stacked against her. At the time,
Yahaya Bello was the sitting governor, wielding enormous influence over the state’s political, security, and administrative apparatus. He openly backed Abubakar Sadiku-Ohere, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, deploying party structures, state resources, and elite networks to secure victory.
One of the most controversial episodes during the 2023 campaign period was the reported excavation and destruction of roads leading to Akpoti-Uduaghan’s hometown, Ihima in Okehi Local Government Area, on the eve of the election.
Natasha publicly accused Bello of ordering the action, alleging that it was designed to restrict access for voters, INEC officials, and security personnel. While the state government defended the move as a security measure aimed at curbing criminal activity, the incident became a powerful symbol of how state power was allegedly used to tilt the electoral playing field. Multiple media reports cited the road excavation as a deliberate attempt to frustrate voter turnout and election logistics in her strongholds.
Despite these obstacles, the election outcome underscored the depth of Natasha’s grassroots appeal. Although INEC initially declared Ohere the winner by a narrow margin of 369 votes, the Election Petition Tribunal later nullified that declaration, citing inflated figures and omitted valid votes. After recalculation, the tribunal declared Akpoti-Uduaghan the rightful winner, a decision subsequently upheld by the Court of Appeal. This judicial affirmation did more than secure her seat; it fundamentally reshaped voter psychology in Kogi Central. It demonstrated that even the combined force of incumbency, state power, and party machinery could be defeated.
By the time Akpoti-Uduaghan was sworn in, she had already attained an uncommon political stature. She was no longer merely a senator; she had become a symbol of resistance and resilience. Among her supporters, particularly women—she earned the sobriquet “the Amazon,” a reflection of the perceptions of courage, defiance, and emotional strength.
This symbolic capital has only grown during her time in office, as her interventions in empowerment, employment facilitation, welfare support, and constituency engagement have touched virtually every corner of the senatorial district. It is now rare to encounter an indigene of Kogi Central who does not associate her tenure with direct or indirect impact, a record unmatched by previous senators since 1999.
Against this backdrop, Yahaya Bello’s recent declaration of interest in the Kogi Central senatorial seat adds a new layer of complexity.
His announcement, made during a visit to the palace of the Ohinoyi of Ebiraland and framed as an acceptance of pressure from stakeholders, is widely interpreted as a strategic move rather than a spontaneous decision. Sources close to Bello suggest that his ambition to return to elective office had been long settled within his inner circle, with public appeals from Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo and other allies serving to project the image of reluctant service rather than personal ambition.
Despite leaving office, Bello remains a formidable political force. He is still widely regarded as the leader of the APC in Kogi State, with Governor Ododo seen as his protégé. His influence over party structures, traditional elites, and political loyalists remains largely intact. Moreover, his track record of electoral victories, particularly in the 2019 and 2023 governorship elections, reinforces the perception among supporters that he is a master of political organization and survival.
One of Bello’s strongest emotional arguments rests on identity and historical memory. Many voters in Kogi Central believe that his emergence as governor in 2016 ended a 16-year drought for the district, an achievement they see as worthy of enduring gratitude. For this segment of the electorate, voting Bello into the Senate in 2027 is framed as a symbolic “thank you” for elevating the district’s political standing. This sentiment is especially pronounced in Okene Local Government Area, Bello’s political base.
However, this argument faces serious counterweights. First is the growing concern about political balance within Kogi Central. With both Bello and the incumbent governor, Ododo, hailing from Okene, and the same ward, many voters across the district fear an unhealthy concentration of power within a single local government and even the same ward. Although informal, zoning and rotational expectations are deeply ingrained in the district’s political culture.
The perception that Okene could simultaneously produce the governor and senator may generate resistance in other local governments, potentially limiting Bello’s cross-district appeal.
Second is the reality of Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan’s entrenched popularity. Her 2023 victory, achieved under extreme pressure—has become a reference point for her supporters, reinforcing the belief that she can defeat Bello again even under less hostile conditions.
Her public statements dismissing intimidation and framing a potential 2027 encounter as a “reckoning” resonate strongly with constituents who view her as a champion against political oppression. Importantly, her support base cuts across party lines, suggesting that her political strength is personal rather than merely partisan.
Party dynamics further complicate the equation. While the APC enjoys structural advantages as the ruling party in Kogi State, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) remains plagued by internal crises. Yet Akpoti-Uduaghan’s influence appears to transcend party limitations. Her assertion that she could switch platforms and retain mass support if PDP’s internal problems persist reflects a political reality in which voter loyalty is increasingly tied to individual credibility rather than party labels.
The recall controversy, mutual accusations, and legal skirmishes between both camps underscore that the battle has already extended beyond conventional campaigning. These pre-emptive confrontations suggest an awareness, particularly among Bello’s allies, that defeating Akpoti-Uduaghan at the ballot box will not be straightforward.
At the same time, aggressive tactics risk reinforcing her narrative as a victim of elite persecution, a narrative that has historically strengthened her bond with voters.
In assessing the likely outcome of a direct contest in 2027, several factors stand out. Bello’s advantages lie in party machinery, financial muscle, institutional leverage, and his enduring influence within the APC. Akpoti-Uduaghan’s strengths lie in grassroots legitimacy, emotional connection, performance record, gender mobilization, and a proven capacity to withstand political pressure.
If the election is largely free and reflects genuine voter sentiment, Akpoti-Uduaghan would enter the race as the frontrunner. Conversely, if institutional manipulation plays a decisive role, Bello’s structural advantages could tilt the balance.
Ultimately, a Bello–Akpoti-Uduaghan contest would represent more than a senatorial race. It would be a referendum on the direction of politics in Kogi Central, whether power remains the ultimate determinant of electoral success or whether popular legitimacy and performance can decisively override entrenched structures.
In that sense, 2027 is poised to become not just an election, but a political reckoning whose outcome will redefine the district’s democratic trajectory for years to come.