Nigeria is fast assuming the unseemly status of a delinquent or a reproach.
There are seldom good tidings about us nowadays.
In spite of the World Bank’s hitherto salubrious projection, namely that our economic growth will approach the 3.6 percent threshold on account of the stabilization of the business environment, macroeconomic reforms, revenue from the financial services and telecommunications sector, the bank has reversed itself.
Recently, the World Bank expressed concern over the economy. It said the country’s paltry foreign reserves of $39 billion were imperiled by the swathe of tariffs inaugurated by President Donald Trump. The tariffs have caused a plunge in the price of crude oil in the international market by at least 10 percent.
Since Nigeria depends on upwards of 80 percent of its revenue from crude oil, foreign reserves are not only vulnerable, the economy itself, and by extension the country’s well being, is endangered. The first casualty of this plunge in crude oil price is the 2025 budget. Pegged at $75 per barrel, we are ineluctably going to witness a deficit of at least $10 per barrel since the prevailing price of Brent crude as per TRADING ECONOMICS and MARKETS INSIDER is $61.29 and $62.05 respectively.
Monthly revenue allocations to the Federal, State and Local Governments will also be negatively impacted. Since revenue accruals to the federation account is fast dwindling, less monies will go to the three tiers of government. This will have adverse consequences for re-current and capital projects.
As if this narrative is not grim enough, at least one million children in the BAY States – Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe – are said likely to suffer from Severe Acute Malnutrition(SAM) this year. This is twice the number of those affected in 2024. In fact, it is reported that 600,000 children are at risk of SAM over the next six months.
To combat the scourge of SAM, the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs(UNOCHA), said not less than $160 million was required to fight food insecurity and malnutrition in the BAY States between May and October alone. To appreciate the magnitude and enormity of this challenge, we must come to terms with the fact that other zones may be affected, even if not on the scale or severity of the BAY States.
What is crystal clear from this grim picture is that we are confronted with an emergency. In an emergency, a country must brace itself, think out of the box, and if overwhelmed, seek urgently for help, especially from development partners and donors. Alas, donors have begun to show fatigue. This is evidenced by the freezing of funds from the United States Agency for International Development(USAID) at the behest of President Trump.
In this dire circumstance, the rational thing to do is to cut down on government spending and to practice frugality. It is not enough for us to patronize locally produced goods. Those in government cannot continue to thrive on wanton opulence and ostentation as if money is going out of style. Neither can the Legislative branch continue to enjoy jumbo salaries and allowances.
Additionally, there is a direct link or relationship between heightened insecurity and food insecurity. Before the advent of insurgency, and even though our agriculture remained pristine and unmechanized, we have not had challenges with food insecurity and food affordability. An adjunct to this is that the insurgents deliberately intensify their attacks during the farming season with a view to provoking and engendering the food insecurity we face today. What this implies is that the government must continue to prioritize security. Premium should be laid on security in order to facilitate the return of farmers to the land.
But it is not enough for farmers to return to the land and cultivate it. They should be robustly incentivized. Fertilizers should be procured and provided at the right time and at the right price. Farmers should be encouraged to buy fertilizers at prices that make their produce affordable and their efforts profitable. It is not right for government to crash the price of foodstuffs via importation when the farmers had purchased fertilizers at exorbitant prices. Such a tendency will proof a disincentive as well as cause the farmers to migrate to more profitable sectors. Where such profitable sectors are non-existent, they become liabilities and constitute security risks.
Seedlings – genuine and improved – should be provided to farmers and on time. Farmers should be educated on how to use the seedlings to reap bumper harvests, taking into cognizance the adverse effects and vagaries of climate change.
Beyond this, government must assiduously invest in areas other than extraction of crude oil and solid minerals. Crude oil and solid minerals are susceptible to price fluctuation in the international market. We must go back to agriculture, which is sustainable, which holds the prospect of keeping millions of Nigerians meaningfully engaged and which makes them less prone to weird religious doctrines and criminality. Agriculture is the ultimate in providing food security and prosperity. It is the way to go.
