The simmering tension in Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress over the composition of the leadership of the next [10th] National Assembly, which is expected to be inaugurated in June 2023, may have boiled over to the surface if the latest information from their governors’ forum is anything to go by. A recent exclusive report by Premium Times newspapers revealed the contents of a memo from the APC governors under the aegis of the Progressives Governors Forum to the President Elect, Bola Tinubu, intimating him of their concerns and suggestions about the current tussle for leadership positions by members of the party. While suggesting some workable zoning arrangements to give every section of Nigeria a sense of inclusion in the incoming government, the governors expressed concerns that if the president elect does not step in now and guide the leadership election process of the 10th assembly in this regard, it might be too late as aspirants may have gone too far to comply with any resolution by the party leadership.
According to the APC governors, ‘’It is imperative that the President-elect and the Party wade into this situation and announce an acceptable zoning formula as soon as possible. This is necessary to prevent over investment by candidates, which leads to acrimony and bitterness. New senators-elect and members-elect are being offered thousands of dollars’’. And as though to drive home the point of over investment by prospective aspirants for various leadership positions of the incoming national assembly, the governors added, ‘’Indeed, it is being rumoured that one aspirant the Senate Presidency and another for the Speakership are willing to offer as much as $500,000 to $ 1,000,000 per vote. Opposition party members of the National Assembly are being courted with the likelihood of the 2015 scenario presenting itself if care is not taken’’.
On the important matter of ensuring a regional and religious balance in the government at centre, the APC governors are not oblivious of the polarisation of the polity that was brought about by their party’s Muslim/Muslim presidential candidacy, which almost cost it the 2023 election. And to ameliorate this situation, the APC governors are suggesting that the Senate Presidency be zoned to either the south east or south southgeo-political zones with the aim of producing a southern Christian senate President to balance the Muslim/Muslim presidency of Nigeria, while the speakership position should be zoned to the North West geo-political zone.
Considering the realities of the times in Nigeria, the concerns expressed by the powerful governors of the ruling APC are as valid as their suggestions are pragmatic. After eight years in power when it displaced the former ruling People’s Democratic Party from the centre in 2015,the ruling APC managed to retain presidential power in a tightly contested election with the narrowest margin of win since the 4thRepublic. With about 8.7 million votes, the APC managed to only secure a little above a third of the total vote cast of about 24 million and majority votes in just 12 out of 36 states of the federation and the FCT [Abuja]. And whereas, the APC won a majority of the seats in the upper [Senate] with 60 out of the 109 and lower [House of Representatives] 179 out of 360 chambers of the National Assembly, it is clear that the party do not have a firm control of the legislature. Whilst the APC conventionally has the first right of refusal in the election of the National Assembly leadership, the significant number of newly elected opposition federal legislators leaves the ruling party vulnerable to external interference in its choice of candidates.
This is because, the leadership of the National Assembly, though conventionally reserved for the majority party is not always its exclusive preserve as the law prescribes an open contest on the floor of each of the chambers with law makers voting freely their choices as presiding officers [Senate President and Speaker]. And with the presence of a significant minority of legislators in the National Assembly, it becomes imperative for the leadership of the ruling APC to put its house in order so as to prevent dissenters from within its ranks from getting elected as presiding officers with the support of opposition elements.
Before it is too late, the president-elect must step forward and take leadership of the process of building a consensus within the rank and file of his party over contentious issues of zoning and other matters arising. In this regard, the APC may consider adopting the PDP zoning arrangement of 1999-2007 as post 2023 Nigeria seems to be a replay of the first 8 years of the 4th Republic. As it was with the PDP in 1999, so it is that APC president is from the south west, vice president from the north east and current party chairman from north central. With these three positions already in place, the APC like the PDP may consider zoning the position of the Speaker of the House of Representatives to the North West, Senate Presidency to the south east and Secretary to the Government of the Federation to the south south.
However, beyond the internal dynamics of consensus building within the APC to reach an acceptable resolution, AsiwajuAhmed Bola Tinubu as the president-elect and leader of the ruling party will have to reach out to the presidential candidates and leaders of the opposition parties and communicate the position of his party. In seeking for their support, the president-elect will have to make assurances and guarantees that the choice of the ruling party for the leadership position is borne out of his desire to secure a legislative mandate for his executive decisions in line with his manifesto but not a attempt to foist a rubber stamp legislature on Nigerians. This kind of consultations, which is in line with global best parliamentary practices, will have to be extended to leading members of the opposition legislators and minority caucuses in order to firm up support for the choice of the APC for the leadership positions in the National Assembly.
Failure to achieve this orderly emergence of the leadership of the National Assembly may alter the zoning arrangements of the party and exclude certain sections of the country; a situation that may aggravate the already deeply polarised country in urgent need of healing and reconciliation through fairness, equity, justice and inclusion. And this will not be in the interest of the incoming government given the fact that while Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election his party the APC lost Nigeria as more Nigerians voted against the ruling party than for it.