Benjamin Netanyahu may have won enough seats to become Prime Minister again after Israel’s fifth election in less than four years, exit polls show.
The polls conducted by the country’s three major TV stations, which are preliminary and could change as votes are counted, indicated that Mr Netanyahu and his allies would capture the 61-seat majority in parliament required to form a new government.
Election officials said that by 8pm local time – two hours before polls close – turnout stood at 66.3%, over five points higher than the same hour in the 2021 election and the highest at that point since 1999, when the main issue was the flagging peace process with the Palestinians.
The exit polls also showed Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-Right Religious Zionism as the third-largest party.
Mr Ben-Gvir is a disciple of a racist rabbi assassinated in the 1990s and has promised a hard line against the Palestinians and the deportation of Arab politicians from Israel. He is expected to seek a Cabinet position as head of the ministry that oversees police.
Celebrations erupted at his party’s headquarters in Jerusalem late Tuesday, with supporters cheering and dancing with Israeli flags and party flags. Bezalel Smotrich, head of the Religious Zionism party that includes Ben-Gvir’s faction, hailed the projected results as ‘historic.’
Mr Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption, would be able to battle the charges as Prime Minister, improving his chances of avoiding conviction or jail time. His opponents view him as a grave threat to Israel’s democratic institutions and the rule of law.
Mr Netanyahu’s main rival is the man who helped oust him last year, the centrist caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who has warned against the nationalist and religious alliance that would emerge should Mr Netanyahu return to power.
It follows more than three years of political gridlock and a string of elections, all of which largely turned on Mr Netanyahu’s fitness to govern.
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While the exit polls may indicate a trend, it is important to note that there have been discrepancies between these surveys and the actual results in past rounds of elections,’ said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, an independent think tank.
But if the results hold true, the next government ‘is poised to propose a series of reforms that would seek to politicize the judiciary and weaken the checks and balances that exist between the branches of government and serve as fundamental components of Israeli democracy,’ he added.
After he cast his vote in the West Bank settlement where he lives, Ben-Gvir promised that a vote for his party would bring about a ‘fully right-wing government’ with Netanyahu as prime minister.
Ben-Gvir, who has been convicted of incitement for his anti-Arab rhetoric had seen his clout rise in the polls ahead of the vote and has demanded a key portfolio should Netanyahu be tapped to form a government.
With former allies and proteges refusing to sit under him while he is on trial, Netanyahu has been unable to form a viable majority government in the 120-seat Knesset, or parliament.
Netanyahu’s opponents, an ideologically diverse constellation of parties, are equally hamstrung in cobbling together the 61 seats needed to rule.
That impasse has mired Israel in an unprecedented political crisis that has eroded Israelis’ faith in their democracy, its institutions and their political leaders.
Buoyed by his followers’ almost cult-like adoration, Netanyahu, 73, has rejected calls to step down by his opponents, who say someone on trial for fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes cannot govern. Netanyahu denies wrongdoing, but embarrassing details from his ongoing trial repeatedly make front-page news.
In Israel’s fragmented politics, no single party has ever won a parliamentary majority, and coalition-building is necessary to govern. Netanyahu’s most likely path to the premiership requires an alliance with extreme nationalists and religious ultra-Orthodox parties.
Some of those parties have promised to enact reforms that could make Netanyahu’s legal woes disappear.